Análisis estadístico de caudales de crecida para la subcuenca EI Burguillo (río Alberche, Cuenca del Tajo)

Abstract

A statistical analysis of flood discharges has been carried out in the ÈÏ Burguillo subbasin (Alberche River, Tajo Basin, Centrai Spain), using parametric methods with only local data. Three series of peak discharges and nine statìstici models (distribution function + parameters estimation method) were utilized in order to obtain the 27 possible combinations of flood probability results. Besides, à temporal study of the flood frequency arid its relation with some synoptic meteorological situations was made.

The best statistic model für these series is the combination of a Generalized Extreme Value distribution (GEV) and the Moments method (MOM). Thè flood events are located between Óctuber and May, and they could be mainly related to Atlantic northwest frontal systems sto wly transported by the westerlies.

The SCS methodology to obtain the curve number needs more corrections than a simple application of the régional multiplicative factor, becauáe its value varies with thè return period