Global Multisector/ Multicountry 3- E Modelling : from COMPASS to GINFORS

Abstract

La dimensión global de la política medioambiental, que se ha convertido en una cuestión de política internacional con la discusión concreta de objetivos e instrumentos, supone un enorme vacío de información para esa política medioambiental. Los autores postulan que éste solo puede cubrirse mediante la aplicación de modelos ambientales económicos globales, que habrán de cumplir ciertos requisitos: se necesita un sistema multi-sector y multi-país con cobertura global y con vínculos de comercio bilateral a parámetros estimados econométricamente. Los autores presentan el sistema COMPASS (Comprehensive Model of Policy Assessment) y el mejorado sistema GINFORS (Global Interindustry Forecasting System), que se está construyendo en base a la experiencia alcanzada con COMPASS. El análisis de la aplicación de GINFORS el proyecto MOSUS (Modelling Opportunities and Limits for Restructuring Europe towards Sustainability) de la UE da idea del potencial del modelo para estudiar asuntos ambientales y económicos globales y para predecir importantes indicadores ambientales. ________________________________________The global dimension of environmental policy, which has become a subject of international policy with the concrete discussion of targets and instruments, constitutes a huge information gap for environmental policy. The authors postulate, that this can only be filled by the application of global economic environmental models, which have to meet certain requirements: A multisector and multicountry system with global coverage and bilateral trade linkage with econometrically estimated parameters is needed. The authors present the system COMPASS (Comprehensive Model of Policy Assessment) and the improved system GINFORS (Global Interindustry Forecasting System), which is just being constructed based on the experiences made with COMPASS. A discussion of the application of GINFORS in the EU project MOSUS (Modelling Opportunities and Limits for Restructuring Europe towards Sustainability) gives an impression of the power of the model to analyze global economic environmental questions and to forecast important environmental indicators.