@article{10272/23302,
year = {2023},
url = {https://hdl.handle.net/10272/23302},
abstract = {This paper presents an average treatment effect analysis of Spain’s furlough program during the onset of the COVID-
19 pandemic. Using 2020 labour force quarterly microdata, we construct a counterfactual made of comparable
nonfurloughed individuals who lost their jobs and apply propensity score matching based on their pretreatment
characteristics. Our findings show that the probability of being re-employed in the next quarter significantly increased
for the treated (furlough granted group). These results appear robust across models, after testing a wide range of
matching specifications that reveal a reemployment probability premium of near 30 percentage points in the group
of workers who had been furloughed for a single quarter. Nevertheless, a different time arrangement affected the
magnitude of the effect, suggesting that it may decrease with the furlough duration. Thus, an analogous analysis
for a longer (two quarter) scheme estimated a still positive but smaller effect, approximately 12 percentage points.
Although this finding might alert against long lasting schemes under persistent recessions, this policy still stands as a
useful strategy to face essentially transitory adverse shocks.},
organization = {This research was conducted within the frame of the project CV20-35470
“Nuevas dinámicas del mercado laboral tras el confinamiento en Andalucía:
el empleo del futuro post-Covid19 y respuesta a nuevos confinamientos”
and its funding institutions (Junta de Andalucía and FEDER). This work was
also supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities
(Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades) under grant
PID2020-115183RB-C22, the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and
Competitiveness (Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad) and the
Regional Government of Andalusia (Junta de Andalucía) through Research
Group SEJ-487 (Spanish Entrepreneurship Research Group – SERG), grant P20-
00733, and from Research and Transfer Policy Strategy (Estrategia de Política
de Investigación y Transferencia, UHU) (Project 645/2020, University of Huelva).},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {Reemployment premium effect of furlough programs: evaluating Spain’s scheme during the COVID‑19 crisis},
doi = {10.1186/s12651-023-00343-w},
author = {García Clemente, Javier and Rubino, Nicola and Congregado Ramírez de Aguilera, Emilio},
}