RT Journal Article
T1 Reemployment premium effect of furlough programs: evaluating Spain’s scheme during the COVID‑19 crisis
A1 García Clemente, Javier
A1 Rubino, Nicola
A1 Congregado Ramírez de Aguilera, Emilio
AB This paper presents an average treatment effect analysis of Spain’s furlough program during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using 2020 labour force quarterly microdata, we construct a counterfactual made of comparablenonfurloughed individuals who lost their jobs and apply propensity score matching based on their pretreatmentcharacteristics. Our findings show that the probability of being re-employed in the next quarter significantly increasedfor the treated (furlough granted group). These results appear robust across models, after testing a wide range ofmatching specifications that reveal a reemployment probability premium of near 30 percentage points in the groupof workers who had been furloughed for a single quarter. Nevertheless, a different time arrangement affected themagnitude of the effect, suggesting that it may decrease with the furlough duration. Thus, an analogous analysisfor a longer (two quarter) scheme estimated a still positive but smaller effect, approximately 12 percentage points.Although this finding might alert against long lasting schemes under persistent recessions, this policy still stands as auseful strategy to face essentially transitory adverse shocks.
PB Springer
SN 1867-8343 (electrónico)
YR 2023
FD 2023
LK https://hdl.handle.net/10272/23302
UL https://hdl.handle.net/10272/23302
LA eng
NO Garcia-Clemente, J., Rubino, N., & Congregado, E. (2023). Reemployment premium effect of furlough programs: evaluating Spain’s scheme during the COVID-19 crisis. In Journal for Labour Market Research (Vol. 57, Issue 1). Springer Science and Business Media LLC. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12651-023-00343-w
NO This research was conducted within the frame of the project CV20-35470“Nuevas dinámicas del mercado laboral tras el confinamiento en Andalucía:el empleo del futuro post-Covid19 y respuesta a nuevos confinamientos”and its funding institutions (Junta de Andalucía and FEDER). This work wasalso supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities(Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades) under grantPID2020-115183RB-C22, the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry andCompetitiveness (Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad) and theRegional Government of Andalusia (Junta de Andalucía) through ResearchGroup SEJ-487 (Spanish Entrepreneurship Research Group – SERG), grant P20-00733, and from Research and Transfer Policy Strategy (Estrategia de Políticade Investigación y Transferencia, UHU) (Project 645/2020, University of Huelva).
DS Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Huelva
RD 30 may 2026