RT Journal Article T1 Will the Balearics and the Canary Islands meet the European Union’s targets for municipal waste? A comparative study from 2000 to 2035. A1 Mena Nieto, Ángel Isidro A1 Estay Ossandón, Charles Keller A1 Pereira dos Santos, Sergio AB Recycling and selective collection rates in touristic islands are low, and they have to be increased to move them towards a more circular economy. This paper attempts to determine whether it will be possible to achieve the European Union's (EU) legally binding targets regarding the different fractions of municipal solid waste (MSW) in the two Spanish regions with the highest per capita MSW generation rates. After reviewing the MSW generation literature in touristic islands, the driving forces affecting MSW generation in the Balearics and Canary archipelagos from 2000 to 2018 are identified. Their evolution until 2035 is forecasted, using a methodology which combines econometric models, System Dynamics and Scenario Analysis.Results reveal that the biggest MSW generator in both archipelagos is the touristic population, followed by the resident population in the Balearics, and by the per capita income in the Canaries. Then, by using simulations to create different scenarios, the annual ratios to be reached by 2035 are estimated for each MSW fraction in both archipelagos. The current low recycling rates (15.81% in the Balearics and 11.18% in the Canaries) would have to be increased by an annual average of 2.89% and 3.16% respectively, to achieve the compulsory 65% target established by theMSWEU Directive for 2035. Therefore, both territories are currently far from the right pathway to meet the EU goals. However, the European Green Deal has to promote circular economy projects that help achieve each type of waste target. PB Elsevier SN 0048-9697 SN 1879-1026 (electrónico) YR 2021 FD 2021 LK https://hdl.handle.net/10272/22814 UL https://hdl.handle.net/10272/22814 LA eng NO Mena-Nieto, A., Estay-Ossandon, C., & dos Santos, S. P. (2021). Will the Balearics and the Canary Islands meet the European Union targets for municipal waste? A comparative study from 2000 to 2035. In Science of The Total Environment (Vol. 783, p. 147081). Elsevier BV. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147081 NO This research was partially funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities through the RTI2018-094614-B-I00 project. The authors would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions to improve the quality of this paper. DS Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Huelva RD 1 jun 2026