RT Journal Article
T1 Forecasting the circum-Mediterranean firs (Abies spp., Pinaceae) distribution: an assessment of a threatened conifers' group facing climate change in the twenty-first century
A1 López Tirado, Javier
A1 Moreno García, Manuel
A1 Romera Romera, Daniel
A1 Zarco, Virginia
A1 Hidalgo Fernández, Pablo José
AB This study examines 10 different taxa within the genus Abies identified in the circum-Mediterranean area: A. alba, A. borisii-regis, A. cephalonica, A. cilicica, A. nebrodensis, A. nordmanniana subsp. equi-trojani, A. nordmanniana subsp. nordmanniana, A. numidica, A. pinsapo var. marocana and A. pinsapo var. pinsapo. We assess the potential distribution of these species in the Mediterranean Basin, most of Central-Northern Europe and Asia Minor through analysis of 8 bioclimatic variables. First, the potential distribution (suitability area) was calculated with Biomod2 package for R using 10 algorithms. Models were ensembled for the present period and then projected into two climate change scenarios (an intermediate and the most extreme) within two time slices (2041-2060 and 2081-2100) and two Global Circulation Models (GCMs). The analysis showed an increase in total suitable area under both forecasted scenarios. Abies spp. appeared to be resilient against climate change, showing a latitudinal and longitudinal migration trend in response to the loss of current habitats. A proposal of assisted migration (managed relocation) is suggested as an interesting alternative to guarantee the preservation of the most endangered species by promoting the establishment of new populations outside of their historical distribution area.
PB Springer Science and Business Media LLC
SN 0169-4286
SN 1573-5095 (electrónico)
YR 2023
FD 2023
LK https://hdl.handle.net/10272/22147
UL https://hdl.handle.net/10272/22147
LA eng
NO López-Tirado, J., Moreno-García, M., Romera-Romera, D., Zarco, V., & Hidalgo, P. J. (2023). Forecasting the circum-Mediterranean firs (Abies spp., Pinaceae) distribution: an assessment of a threatened conifers’ group facing climate change in the twenty-first century. In New Forests. Springer Science and Business Media LLC. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11056-023-09972-y
NO The authors are grateful to the project financed by FEDER, Junta de Andalucía-Consejería de Economía y Conocimiento. Code: UHU-1262837. Funding for open access charge: Universidad de Córdoba / CBUA.
DS Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Huelva
RD 1 jun 2026