RT Journal Article
T1 Measuring anomalies in cigarette sales using official data from Spanish provinces: Are the anomalies detected by the Empty Pack Surveys (EPSs) used by Transnational Tobacco Companies (TTCs) the only anomalies?
A1 Cadahia Delgado, Pedro
A1 Golpe Moya, Antonio Aníbal
A1 Martín Álvarez, Juan Manuel
A1 Asensio, Eva
AB There is a literature that questions the veracity of the studiescommissioned by transnational tobacco companies (TTCs) to measure the illicittobacco trade. Furthermore, there are studies that have indicated that the emptypack surveys (EPSs) ordered by TTCs overestimate the size of this trade. Thisstudy simultaneously analyzed whether the EPSs established in each of the 47Spanish provinces were accurate and measured anomalies observed in provinceswhere sales exceed expected values. To achieve the objectives of this study, provincial data on cigarette sales,prices and GDP per capita were used. These data were modeled with machinelearning techniques that are widely used to detect anomalies in other areas. The magnitude of the average anomaly in provinces where sales are higherthan their expected values exceeds 40%, while the average anomaly in provinceswhere sales are lower than their expected values (as detected by the EPSs) is<15%. Furthermore, the results reveal that there is a clear geographical pattern tothe provinces in which sales below reasonable values are observed. In addition,the values provided by the EPSs in Spain, as indicated in the previous literature,are slightly overestimated. Finally, some regions bordering other countries orthat are highly influenced by tourism have observed sales that are higher thantheir expected values. Cooperation between countries in their tobacco control policies canhave better effects than policies developed based on information from a singlecountry. The lack of control over the transactions of tourists and the inhabitants ofbordering countries can cause important anomalies that distort the understandingof tobacco consumption that governments have based on official data
PB European Publishing
SN 1617-9625 (electrónico)
YR 2021
FD 2021-12
LK http://hdl.handle.net/10272/21164
UL http://hdl.handle.net/10272/21164
LA eng
NO Cadahia, P., Golpe, A., Martín-Álvarez, J., & Asensio, E. (2021). Measuring anomalies in cigarette sales using official data from Spanish provinces: Are the anomalies detected by the Empty Pack Surveys (EPSs) used by Transnational Tobacco Companies (TTCs) the only anomalies? In Tobacco Induced Diseases (Vol. 19, Issue December, pp. 1–12). E.U. European Publishing. https://doi.org/10.18332/tid/143321
DS Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Huelva
RD 31 may 2026