Decoding urban energy use variability: a bottom-up approach in Ecuador

Abstract

Energy consumption is crucial for economic development and individual well-being, particularly in densely populated urban areas. This study examines energy consumption patterns in Ecuadorian urban households using a bottom-up approach and clustering techniques to identify trends, socioeconomic disparities, and potential opportunities for demand management. Primary data from Quito (620 observations) and Guayaquil (474 observations) were used. A structured three-phase selection process successfully narrowed 48 initial variables to seven, significantly improving segmentation accuracy. The optimal 2-cluster solution revealed significant disparities in income, housing characteristics, and resource access. Income emerged as a key determinant of technology adoption and energy usage, highlighting socioeconomic gaps. The findings provide valuable insights for policymakers by emphasizing energy services’ importance for economic and personal advancement. The reliance on fossil fuels and the pressing need for decarbonization necessitate transitioning to more sustainable energy systems. By identifying distinct consumption profiles and the influence of income on technology and energy usage, this study can inform demand management strategies, promote energy-saving initiatives, and facilitate the adoption of cleaner technologies. It is essential to raise awareness of the social impact of energy subsidies and to encourage a shift in consumer behavior through education and incentives for responsible energy consumption in Ecuador.