Forecasting the evolution of the vehicle fleet in Spain

Abstract

Originality of the work: The vehicle fleet in Spain is one of the major sources of greenhouse gas emissions. The current process of transformation in which it is immersed means that the study and forecast of the evolution of this fleet is of great interest from a social, economic and environmental perspective. Different factors that can condition the evolution of the fleet are described; both quantitatively, in terms of the number and age of the vehicles that make up the fleet, and qualitatively, evaluating the evolution of the different types of engines that can be found.

Reasons or motivations: Different factors that can condition the evolution of the fleet are described; both quantitatively, in terms of the number and age of the vehicles that make up the fleet, and qualitatively, evaluating the evolution of the different types of engines that can be found.

Achieved objectives: The main factors that currently affect and condition the evolution of the vehicle fleet in Spain have been identified individually. The study of these variables allows us to establish the necessary bases for modelling the quantitative transformation (progression of the number and age of the fleet) and qualitative transformation (in the different types of engines that make up the fleet).