Predicting adult overweight and obesity prevalences using the food nutritive value supplies of the FAO’s food balance sheet data: case study of trends in Spain

Abstract

Improving strategies against obesity and overweight requires estimating and constantly monitoring health risk factors. This study aimed to: (1) develop multiple linear regression (MLR) models predicting adult overweight and obesity prevalence in within-country analysis, based on FAO food balance sheets, and (2) assess the evolution of food groups and the estimated adult overweight and obesity prevalences over recent decades in Spain as a case study, as well as analyzing their projections into the long-term future by using three different FAO scenarios. The obtained MLR models showed high accuracy and predictive capability, and they would help to monitor these target health outcome variables in within-country analysis. The evolution of whole consumption of food groups in Spain showed small or moderate variations from 2000 to the present. However, adherence to the traditional and healthy Mediterranean diet of the Spanish population decreased. Overweight and obesity prevalences in Spain, estimated by MLR, showed a downward trend or remained similar in the last decade. This was consistent with prevalence projections for 2050 in Spain according to the FAO Toward Sustainability scenario, predicting a decrease in the consumption of commodities supplying energy and protein per capita, and more aligned with current food-based dietary guidelines in Spain. It will be necessary to assess whether this trend remains stable over time and whether it is the result of the changes in dietary patterns and lifestyles promoted by sectors involved in public health.