Spain's decarbonisation to 2030: An integrated LMDI–LEAP assessment

Abstract

Spain’s National Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC) requires deep decarbonisation, yet it remains unclear whether current trends are sufficient to meet the 2030 targets. This study integrates an LMDI decomposition of energyrelated CO2 emissions (1990–2024), aligned with PNIEC sector categories, with a trend-based LEAP projection to 2030, and benchmarks results against the official PNIEC targets. The LMDI analysis shows that economic activity is the main upward driver of emissions, while energy-efficiency improvements and cleaner fuel substitution exert mitigating effects; however, transport and industry exhibit persistent inertia. Under the Baseline scenario, the TES-based CO2 proxy reaches −15.8% relative to 1990 by 2030, far from the PNIEC target of −32.0% (a 16.2 percentage-point gap). Supply-side progress outpaces demand-side transformation: renewable electricity reaches 89.0% of generation versus the 81.0% PNIEC benchmark, whereas electrification in final energy reaches only 25.8% versus the 35.0% target, leaving most of the gap concentrated in diffuse end-use sectors. These findings provide a transparent diagnostic framework for identifying where additional measures are required to align Spain’s current trajectory with its 2030 decarbonisation commitments.