Long-Term Impacts of Forest Management Practices under Climate Change on Structure, Composition, and Fragmentation of the Canadian Boreal Landscape

Abstract

Forest harvesting and fire are major disturbances in boreal forests. Forest harvesting has modified stand successional pathways, which has led to compositional changes from the original conifer-dominated forests to predominantly mixed and hardwood forests. Boreal fire regimes are expected to change with future climate change. Using the LANDIS-II spatially explicit landscape model, we evaluated the effects of forest management scenarios and projected fire regimes under climate change in northeastern Canadian boreal forests, and we determined the subsequent alteration in stand- and landscape-level composition, succession, and spatial configuration of boreal forests. We observed that, in contrast to successional pathways that followed fire, successional pathways that followed forest harvesting favored mixed forests with a prevalence of shade-intolerant hardwoods for up to 300 y after harvesting. This trend was exacerbated under climate change scenarios where forests became dominated by hardwood species, particularly in ecoregions where these species were found currently in low abundance. Our results highlight the failure of existing forest management regimes to emulate the effects of natural disturbance regimes on boreal forest composition and configuration. This illustrates the risks to maintaining ecosystem goods and services over the long term and the exacerbation of this trend in the context of future climate change.